A Modest Pitching Proposal 2012 - Gary Armida's Blog

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A Modest Pitching Proposal 2012 Stuck

Posted on June 27, 2012 at 08:52 AM.

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Perhaps Major League Baseball has been going about this all wrong. After all, the babying of pitchers isn�t doing any good. The babying�the pitch counts and innings counts�isn�t having any impact. Over the past four years, teams have racked up a billion dollars in salaries paid to injured pitchers. Yup, the current plan isn�t working. This season, the Royals have sent three pitchers to the have Tommy John Surgery. The Blue Jays have lost four men from their rotation. But, none of that is really new.

Stephen Strasburg was another victim to being ill prepared to pitch at the Major League level. All of his restrictions�the Minor League tour, the pitch counts, the careful construction of his schedule�couldn�t prevent two stints on the disabled list, a handful of MRI�s, and Tommy John Surgery.

But, Strasburg�s injury, as well as the litany of other pitchers� since his surgery, shouldn�t be all that shocking. Even before he signed a Major League contract, there were the whispers of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and many others who should�ve had dominant careers instead of one brief splash and then a never-ending list of surgeries. It is not a surprise. The Yankees tried everything to protect Joba Chamberlain. The results for all of their limits, role changes, and restrictions? A sore shoulder, a loss of velocity, and, you guessed it, Tommy John Surgery. Erik Bedard missed most of his prime due to injury. There are, literally, hundreds of similar stories.

The surprise is someone like Felix Hernandez managing to avoid arm trouble during his first eight seasons as a Major Leaguer. It is a surprise that CC Sabathia, for all of his 200+ innings, has only suffered an oblique injury during his career. Those rare pitchers who avoid the disabled list are the surprises, not the majority of pitchers who find their way onto the inactive list for a sore shoulder, or something much worse. It is the rare gift when a pitcher can make his 32 starts a season for more than one or two seasons in a row. Teams cannot count on that and most have made the necessary arrangements.

Most teams have a list of eight or nine pitchers who they consider Major League starting pitching candidates. Obviously, the lower on the depth chart, the less likely the pitcher will be successful at the Major League level. But, organizations prepare to have to start more than six or seven pitchers in a season. It is a reality and it is something all teams are ready for�some are just better than others at it.

The Rays have Alex Cobb and Chris Archer as their sixth and seventh starters. The Yankees don�t have that type of depth as Freddy Garcia is essentially their sixth starter. The Royals and Blue Jays have already sent seven different pitchers to the bump to start the game. The number of starting pitchers used by a team generally increases as the place in the standings decreases. The restriction thing isn�t working and is actually harming teams� playoff chances.

With all of the failure with restrictions, perhaps teams should do exactly what the Rangers said they were going to do a few seasons ago. Teams should abolish the pitch count and the innings limits. Teams owe it to the fans to put the best players on the field. That includes pitchers. Teams should not be concerned about bringing a pitcher along slowly. That doesn�t work. They end up on the disabled list regardless.

Instead, teams should break spring training with their best five pitchers, no matter the age or experience. Then, those five pitchers are to pitch as long as they can. If it takes them 120 pitches to get to through the seventh inning, so be it. If they are still effective and are closing in on 130 pitches, they should be permitted to finish the job. The only reason to really take out a pitcher is if he loses effectiveness. Then, the lesser talented reliever can come in to finish the game. With an organization�s best five pitchers making the starts, a team has a better chance to win. It has a better chance to keep a bullpen better rested and it has a better chance to maximize talent each season.

Sure, the approach is a bit myopic, but each individual season represents a chance to win. The Nationals have stated that Stephen Strasburg will pitch approximately 170 innings this season. What if they are in a fight for a playoff berth? Will they stay with the plan? They shouldn�t. Strasburg already blew his arm out once, why not just do it again? Their coddling of him didn�t prevent him from getting hurt the first time. The Nationals haven�t been to the playoffs since 1981. They need to win; they need to win this year. They should use their ace as much as possible. Maybe the Diamondbacks would be in first place had they broke camp with their stud prospect Trevor Bauer, instead of waiting until this week to break in their prized flame thrower. Maybe the Orioles would be in first place right now had they just promoted Dylan Bundy to the Majors instead of building up his innings in the Minor Leagues. The Rays should let Matt Moore throw as many innings as he can this year. He could be the difference down the stretch. The possibilities are endless. Talent wins games; teams have been holding back their top talent too much at the expense of winning.

Their reasoning was simple; they were trying to protect an asset. Stephen Strasburg is a special, one of a kind talent. Wanting him to have a long career is smart. It�s just that Major League organizations are blind as to how to assure themselves that the majority of their pitchers will have that long career. Instead, the industry has the opposite, where the majority ends up hurt and hoping to rediscover that velocity. Baseball is playing a game of Russian Roulette and losing almost every single time.

Instead of regulating, teams should just let their pitchers pitch. Eventually, they will get hurt, but what is the difference? The eventually get hurt with pitch counts anyway. A team could not have been more cautious than the Nationals were with Strasburg. He had surgery during season one. Instead, teams should just ride their pitchers for as long as they can. Once the pitcher breaks down, they can do what already happens�they insert the next one. Yes, there will be a ton of money spent on injured pitchers, but it couldn�t possibly be much more than the billion or so dollars already spent.

The windfall of this could be great for teams. Mark Prior was actually healthy for an entire season, 2003. He almost pitched the Cubs to a World Series. Kerry Wood and Matt Clement where both healthy that year as well. The Cubs were within a game of the World Series. The eventual champions, the Florida Marlins, were led by Carl Pavano and Brad Penny, both under 28 years old and both around 200 innings. October Baseball is won with elite pitching. That pitching must be at the Major League level.

Instead of restricting a pitcher to only have him land on the disabled list, teams should let the pitcher at least benefit them. They are going to have to pay him while he is on the disabled list anyway so they might as well reap the benefits of the pitcher by having him throw as many innings in the Major Leagues as possible. Removing restrictions allows for that to happen since the restrictions don�t really have an effect on most of the industry. Since Baseball�s attitude about pitcher health is all reactionary and based on the principles of fear and luck, they might as well maximize their assets while they are healthy. Hey, maybe they get lucky and get a Felix Hernandez type who stays healthy.

Is this the best solution? Well, no, it really isn�t. Teams should invest in the science of biomechanics and/or employ teams of doctors to study how to keep pitchers healthy. But, the majority of teams don�t bother to do any of that. Instead, they hope their pitchers stay healthy. They operate under the fear of too many pitches cause injuries, never looking at the underlying cause of epidemic of pitching injuries. Until teams decide to actually be proactive and actually do something to really prevent injuries, they might as well maximize their investment by actually have them pitch at the Major League level before coming down with the inevitable arm or shoulder injury. Maybe those extra starts before getting hurt will make a difference in the playoff race. If the pitcher is talented, it probably will make a difference. Teams already prepare for pitcher injuries. They might as well get more innings from them before they get hurt.

Until organizations decide to really change, they might as well hope that their pitchers can make it through the season instead of charting pitches and innings and still hoping that they can stay healthy. If they can�t pitch all of those innings without getting hurt, well, nothing has really changed except the team got additional innings out of their asset. If an industry is going to choose a foolhardy plan anyway, it might as well pick the foolish plan that gives them more rather than hoping for something that may never come. Seems like a great way to run a business, doesn�t it?

Gary Armida is a staff writer for OS and sometimes likes to write satires like this one. Talk with him on Twitter @garyarmida

Comments

# 1 AlexOvechkin @ Jun 27

Great read!

# 2 BIG17EASY @ Jun 27

Good story and premise. But the problem is much deeper than pitch counts. Many teams don't let their young pitchers throw enough between starts, which keeps them from building arm strength. Some teams won't let their pitchers throw more than 120 feet, which also hinders arm strength.

Also, lots of teams are actually studying biomechanics. 3P Sports is doing revolutionary stuff with biomechanics and preventing injury. Not all teams are using this research, but the majority are.

# 3 Gary Armida @ Jun 27

Thanks for the kind words guys. Truly appreciated.

@Big17Easy: Completely agree. I'm glad you mentioned 3P Sports. I've written a bunch of stuff with and for them as well as worked with Rick Peterson on quite a few writing projects. I agree about their work: incredible.

I will disagree about the majority. Only a handful of teams have said (I've asked them all) that they use biomechanics: Indians, A's, Rays, and now Orioles. Now, some may not have wanted to answer, but according to people like Peterson and Will Carroll, most teams aren't using it. They should, which is why I get frustrated.

# 4 Gary Armida @ Jun 27

Add the Brewers to that list.

# 5 BIG17EASY @ Jun 27

Curious why you didn't say that in the article. It would lend a lot more legitimacy to your argument if you mention your sources/connections.

# 6 Gary Armida @ Jun 27

I meant this to be more of a satire, kind of sarcastic dig at the industry as a whole. I'll have some content with Rick in the coming weeks for sure. Here's something I wrote with him a month or so ago. http://fcpbaseballreport.com/blog/20...-organization/

# 7 BIG17EASY @ Jun 27

OK, completely missed the sarcasm. Sorry 'bout that.

# 8 Gary Armida @ Jun 27

Lol, no worries. That's the writer's bad.

# 9 shadia147 @ Jul 1

Gary; I agree with the basic premise of your article. However, the problem doesnt come from the Major or even Minor League levels. It stems from the fact that simply put, kids no longer play catch. You never see kids out there with a ball and gloves just throwing just to be throwing. Nolan Ryan once lamented that the days of throwing rocks to knock over tin cans was over. The arm is a muscle. That muscle must be developed at the earliest stage possible. By developing those muscles at an early age, they thereby already have them by the time they sign their first contracts. If you look at the pitchers with the longest longevity over the last 20 years, you see guys like Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens who grew up on farms, with nothing else to do put throw rocks, or you see guys from Cuba or the poor Latin Countries who again, played outside, and didnt set at home playing video games.
If anything.. You could argue that Video Games are the reason Pitchers have become so fragile. Pitchers 20 years ago didnt have these arm troubles, and they pitched every FOUR days not FIVE. And they never saw some of the medical advances we see today.

# 10 Gary Armida @ Jul 1

I think we agree. I do agree that there isn't enough playing catch. There isn't enough long toss. And there is just a lack of knowledge out there that hurts developing pitchers. But, I do maintain that a pitcher can be as strong as he wants but without a proper delivery, he is doomed to get hurt.

Good stuff. I love this conversation.